The apparatus of Travel has been mothballed

What lies in the future for our holidays and desire to travel?

Hello and welcome to my latest Podcast.

It was only two weeks ago, that I decided to publish another Podcast, dealing with the problems of the Coronavirus, where I was talking about how Summer may not happen! 

Believe me when I say this, that I did not publish that lightly, because I was concerned that by telling people to think about what is happening and that they may not get to go on that long-planned summer break, was not something that you really want to be the subject matter of any message you give out!

But I published it and the sky didn’t fall in, but in the days that has followed it has become clear that there is a growing number of UK Consumers who are thinking about their travel plans, particularly where they have paid for them or simply placed a deposit down. 

As I wrote this, I could already see the tremors in the Travel Industry, where they are having to confront the possibility that they will have to return monies paid, because of their obligations in law and they are now wrapped up in a tripartite of pressures: to give the money back; to call for the suspension of rights or to offer vouchers or credit-notes.

I am not deaf to their pressures. 

These are businesses without any current business or income who have to somehow stay ‘alive’ for that moment, when restrictions are lifted and that we can all go back to living normally again; or can we?

In this past week, in fact in the last few days, I have highlighted the need to support those who work in the industry, to help companies, to expose the failures of the UK government on repatriation flights and indeed their whole policy of dealing with the Coronavirus crisis. 

But despite these interventions, it is clear that people are trying to turn their attentions to the future and offering a support to a government who in my opinion, don’t deserve that support.

But coming back to the future, the future is already full of predictions and I am certainly now not going to be shy in coming forward. 

In making my predictions of what travellers or holidaymakers can expect in the coming months, I am doing so because I think travel commentators like me need to offer signposts to ordinary people who are already consumed by this crisis; it will hopefully offer some strategic direction in their thinking about travel and how they should spend their money.

So in an earlier podcast, I took the view that travel will probably start to return to normal by the end of July; that may now be seen to be premature. 

Responsibility is kicking in and the desire to control the virus and our health system, until a vaccine is ready, is cautioning that normality may not return until September. 

In some ways this is interesting because I am aware that some International Organisations are already factoring in face-to-face meetings, but not before September!

If this prediction or analysis is correct, then that effectively ends the 2020 summer holiday season to our favourite destinations.

So this potential end to quarantine does not mean that overnight, the logistics of travel will suddenly be available. It may be the case that governments will give an early indication to airlines and shipping companies that the end is in sight, but that will depend on the conditions on the ground.

Then it is a question for example, with airlines, where have they ‘parked’ all their planes? What do they need to do to make sure that they have been maintained and are fit-to-fly and then they have to move them into their respective positions so that schedules can be reactivated. 

The same will also be true of resorts and hotels; all have to be woken from their imposed slumbers. To achieve this turnaround, it would probably take 2 to 3 weeks before they would be fully operational and ready to fly you away.

There is also the question of financial viability. 

Without State Aid, will travel companies be able to operate? We can already see for example that the German government has provided a €1bn+ loan facility to TUI, the tour operator and travel company but we have yet to see a similar initiative being offered to UK travel companies. Who will or won’t survive is not something I could confidently predict, but for certain we can expect to see some fall as a result of the lockdown from Coronavirus. Hopefully you will have booked a holiday that is financially protected?

But let’s assume that we can all get going, is it going to be simple to walk off the plane or ferry and gain entry into the country you are visiting; no I don’t think it will be as easy as that.

I suspect that we are all going to have to get used to a new kind of bureaucracy, no I don’t mean brexit, but that will come, no I mean a new requirement to demonstrate your health-status. 

For example, we may have to satisfy our Travel Company that we are fit and healthy and that we have adequate insurance. It might mean that we shall all have to obtain a certificate to state that we are fit-to-travel, having taken a COVID19 test to show we may have had it and are clear of the virus. I also suspect that some countries will also double-check our health as we enter the country; we may even have to download an app, like the Chinese app, that checks you at every attraction or place you visit; if the light shows green you can pass, if not, you would have to return to quarantine in your hotel.

Our aircraft, ships, trains and coaches are going to have to demonstrate a standard of cleanliness not delivered before, just to ensure that any remaining part of the virus is not being transmitted unwittingly into its arrival country; this could potentially mean delays and reworked schedules, just so as these companies do not fall foul of Consumer Rights!

I suspect that Travel Companies are probably even now, working on wholesale amendments to their Ts&Cs and will require declarations from their customers and will highlight limitations to the product you have booked. Will the hotel be fully open, will resort facilities be operational; will you receive what you originally paid for; all will be subject to change; significant change and this phrase is important within the Package Travel Regulations!

But, the biggest factor for intending holidaymakers will be found in the field of Travel Insurance. 

In the hiatus of government dithering on how to deal with the crisis, as destinations tumbled and Citizens were left working out how to deal with their Travel problems, Insurance companies were already active in preventing Coronavirus claims, partly, in fairness to them, because they knew that most Consumers had Rights within the Package Travel Regulations, but they rapidly changed their own Ts&Cs to prevent any kind of cover for new policies for any Coronavirus claim. 

You can expect these same companies to get you to provide a comprehensive set of answers when buying their policies; you will have to fully declare all of your previous medical conditions and how you fared with COVID19. Some will not receive cover and will have to shop elsewhere, but for those receiving a policy, there will be dire warnings of any failure to answer the questions honestly, and then you will only receive perhaps some form of limited cover, maybe as simple as a flight home if Coronavirus becomes evident in your destination.

Make no mistake, if Coronavirus arises in your destination and you become ill, treatment will be expensive and here’s the brexit point again, but it is important, by 2021, we won’t have the benefit of the European Health Insurance Card for Free or Low Cost Medical Treatment in the European area; would you be willing to take the risk?

Another point relates to the role of the UK’s Foreign Office, who I think it could be fairly stated, that they are not coming too well out of this. There are many reports of holidaymakers feeling abandoned by the UK’s Consular Services. The repatriation flight organisation has been lamentable by comparison to what is happening within EU Member States aided by the EU’s Civil Measure Mechanism, where the EU has donated 75% toward the cost of repatriation flights against the latest announcement made by Dominic Raab; I will leave that one for you to think about

I have already talked earlier about rights, vouchers and credit notes and some within the travel industry are calling the situation like the wild-west. Beware the Ides of Coronavirus and the siren voices calling for the suspension of rights; a suspension without end; a suspension whereby rights will be fashioned to ‘deregulate the market’ for the aftermath of Coronavirus and Brexit; will you fight to stop the dilution of rights or will you be one of those that will lament when something goes wrong when you are on holiday?

Another factor to consider is whether it is right to return to normal? There is plenty of commentary out there, that talks about how we will change our working practices or the way education will be delivered and how we will communicate across great distances. You only have to look at the European Space Agency satellite images to see how NOX levels have fallen all across Europe (and that includes the UK!); look then that Eurocontrol, Europes main air traffic control, which demonstrates how little air traffic is up there and no doubt a fall in pollution. The key question must be; are we really going to return to normal, without very clear and resolute actions to change these polluting machines? If you agree, then we as a society will have to pay for this major change, to help the very industries that we have come to rely on to deliver our dreams of leisure or ambitions in business!

Of course, if country’s, governments or companies fail to import important check and balances, then we will perhaps an experience a Coronavirus without end!

These are indeed difficult days, but, the challenges over the next two years and beyond are there for us to meet; summer may not happen this year, but with great will and prayer, we will all have many joyful summers to come!

Until the next time.

Take care

(This is the text of the script for Frank's CreatingRipples Podcast™ - CoronaTourism: What comes next?. You can listen to this Podcast here)

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